Jack Ma’s Ant Group may survive this bump but won’t be super-unicorn again

The future of Ant Group remains up in the air after its dramatic fall from grace. Regulators seem to have stopped short of dismantling it and the company is considering a transition to a financial holding company, willing to be regulated like a bank. It’ll be tough. What could Ant ultimately look like?

Bank-like companies don’t command tech-like valuations. Unless, of course, you’re in the booming consumer finance market in China, which is expected to hit 3 trillion yuan ($464 billion) in volumes over the next four years. That’s where credit demand is —and that’s where Ant’s reach is. More importantly, state planners are trying to generate domestic demand and supply, keeping with their so-called dual circulation strategy. For that to work, credit will have to flow to households effectively.