Can India reform its telecom market and save Vodafone Idea in the process?

Just as Vodafone Idea Ltd. was about to drown under the weight of its $30 billion debt, India has thrown a lifeline to the U.K. operator’s local joint venture. The rescue is only one of the tea leaves Group CEO Nick Read will read as he weighs the all-important question: Has India stopped being what Deutsche Bank AG analysts recently described as “the most painful market” to operate a telecom? The answer will decide if it’s time to make a fresh play for the 1.4-billion-person market.

A moratorium on New Delhi’s bloated back-fee claims, extra time to pay for the spectrum purchased in past auctions, and a relief from onerous bank guarantees add up to at least 316 billion rupees ($4.3 billion) in liquidity support, according to Investec Capital Services. That would keep Vodafone Idea going, though stabilizing a business that has lost more than a third of its 400 million-plus subscribers in three years will need a lighter debt load, and a thicker equity cushion. In other words, a true revival will require an optimistic view of the future.