First 50 retweets key to predict whether a tweet will go viral: Study

Estimating how infectious a tweet is from the first 50 retweets is the key to predict whether a tweet will go viral or not, say researchers.

A tweet’s virality is modulated most by its early spread rate and a gradual loss of interest over time.

A new “Infectivity” model developed by Li Weihua and team from Beihang University, China can accurately predict a tweet lifespan.

Although models developed in the field of infectious diseases have been used to describe the spread of ideas, studies have not used real data to estimate how infectious the information is, said the paper which appeared in the journal PLOS ONE.